Unless there is a radical change of stance within the Republican Party and its crop of presidential candidates, or some unforeseen dramatic events that alters the current economic and political landscape, or a serious deterioration in her health, Hilary has it locked up. She would become the first Madame President which would be propelled by the mainstream media, Hollywood and social media. Political elections are all about momentum and the surge that will be behind her after the midterm elections in November 2014 will be enormous. Voters will be forced into viewing slogans such as ‘vote to make history’ and a ‘triumph for women’.
Hilary will have either symbolic or no primary opposition. The only reason why ambitious power players like New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo might challenge Hilary to a primary is to increase their own national name recognition with the goal of landing on Hilary’s VP shortlist. This in itself could be argued as the real Democratic primary of 2016; those wanting to be Hilary’s VP will have to stake a claim during the primaries and gain a following. Hilary not having a real primary will give her a huge advantage over her Republican opposition as she will be free to concentrate on the general-election battle while the Republicans are still battling each other.
The Electoral College would potentially offer an advantage towards the Democrats. In 2012 the final Electoral College results were 332 for Obama and 206 for Romney. If Romney had won the battleground states of Florida (29 votes), Ohio (18), and Virginia (13), Obama would still have been re-elected but by a closer margin of 272 to 266. However just because Obama managed to gain over 300 electoral votes it does not mean that Hilary will repeat that achievement. However, the path to 270 is much easier for any Democrat than it is for a Republican due to the current and future demographic growth and established voting patterns.
She has the Hispanic, African-American and the Asian vote; they are therefore hers to loose. You can hardly be surprised that the African-American vote for the Democrat Party has been huge over the past two Presidential elections. Also Hilary PAC has already hired some key Obama managers and field organisers who helped him gain Hispanic and Asian support.
However there are also several potential issues that could drag her back. Since becoming the globe-trotting secretary of State she has lacked any real accomplishment. She could also be seen as a poor choice of candidate for the Democrats in 2016 because the moment she become a candidate, the Republicans will know how to get her. The RNC staff will have learnt from Obama’s negative advertising campaigns. Her support for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, the questions surrounding the Benghazi consulate terrorist attack plus all the issues that were revealed from her 2008 campaign would all come back to haunt her. Another issue would be Bill Clinton; many would feel that Hilary running for Presidency is also a vote for Bill, this could be seen as undemocratic voting for a person who was part of the Bush/Clinton dynasties. Her age would also come into question; she will be 69 years old. In 2008 she argued that 70-year-old Senator John McCain was “too old”. The Republicans could potentially even use John McCain to turn the tables on Hilary and she could come across to the media as hypocritical.
Overall if we find her on the Democratic Jefferson Dinner circuit in 2014, we will know whether she is planning to run. If she were to run a credible campaign with minimal hiccups and strong momentum throughout there could be the first Madame President. However her history could come back to haunt her.